The Royal Baby: what we know so far

Perhaps the biggest news of today has been the birth of The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge's second child. So, to save you trawling through Twitter for the info, here's everything you need to know.

shoppingblog.com
Prince William, Duke of Cambridge and
Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge have welcomed a
baby daughter into the world today

The big question: boy or girl?
It's a girl!

When was she born?
The Duchess of Cambridge was admitted to the Lindo Wing of St. Mary's Hospital, Paddington in west London at 06:00 BST on 2nd May. 

The announcement was made by Kensington Palace just after 11:00 BST, stating:

'Her Royal Highness The Duchess of Cambridge was safely delivered of a daughter at 8.34am.'

The Duke of Cambridge was present at the birth, and the baby weighed 8lb3oz.

How is she doing?
Kensington Palace have tweeted to say 'Her Royal Highness and her child are both doing well'.

What will she be called?
The baby has been named Charlotte Elizabeth Diana, and will be known as Her Royal Highness Princess Charlotte of Cambridge.

huffingtonpost.co.uk
The first close-up images of the princess were
released early this evening

Alice and Charlotte were the two bookies' favourites, with Elizabeth, Victoria, Olivia, Alexandra and Frances also among some of those with the lowest odds.


How does she fit in to the rest of the British Royal Family?
The princess will be fourth in line to the throne, after Prince Charles (her paternal grandfather), Prince William (her father) and Prince George (her older brother), meaning her uncle Prince Harry is now fifth in line to succeed.

If her parents have another child who is a boy, this will not change the order of succession.

Princess Charlotte is the fifth great-grandchild of Queen Elizabeth II.

twitter.com
The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge with their new
daughter on Saturday

What is the relevance of the princess' name?

Princess Charlotte's name features three of the bookies' favourites.

There was an earlier Princess Charlotte in Princess Charlotte of Wales, who had been the heir to the throne, but tragically died in childbirth in 1817 at the age of 21, much to the grief of the nation.

She was the only child of the future King George IV, and was the only legitimate grandchild of King George III at the time. Princess Charlotte's mother, the German-born Queen Charlotte, was King George III's wife, who bore him 15 children. She was a great patron of the arts and helped to create Kew Gardens.

The Duchess of Cambridge also has an ancestor named Charlotte, who was born in 1825 and died in 1900.

wikimedia.org
Queen Charlotte (1744-1818)

The name Elizabeth is certainly not an uncommon one for the Royal Family. Our current queen is of course an Elizabeth, as was her mother, Elizabeth Bowes-Lyon. Elizabeth is also Catherine's middle name.

npg.org
Queen Elizabeth The Queen Mother (1900-2002)

Diana is of course given in reference to the Duke's beloved mother, who died tragically in a car accident when he was still a child. Princess Diana was one of the most popular members of the royal family and one of the most photographed people in the world, so this will, no doubt, please many members of the public.

modny73.com
Princess Diana (1961-1996)

What celebrations and congratulations have taken place so far?
London's Tower Bridge and other landmarks such as the London Eye will be illuminated in pink, an echo of the illumination of monuments and landmarks such as the fountain in Trafalgar Square in blue for the birth of Prince George.

wikipedia.com
Trafalgar Square fountain was illuminated blue
for the birth of Prince George

twitter.com
Tower Bridge announced that it will turn pink this evening
to celebrate the princess' birth

As is traditional, an easel has been placed at Buckingham Palace giving details of the birth of The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge's daughter today.

bbc.co.uk
The notice will remain for twenty-four hours.

Many congratulations have also poured in. HMS Lancaster, known as the 'Queen's Frigate' sent a message of congratulations to Kensington Palace, while various messages of congratulations have been tweeted by many people, from Prime Minister David Cameron to the Welsh Rugby Union.

twitter.com
The Royal Navy sent their congratulations.

Royal Gun salutes were fired at Hyde Park and The Tower of London earlier today. 

Updates:

4th May 2015
15:06 The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge's daughter has been named Charlotte Elizabeth Diana. She will be known as Her Royal Highness Princess Charlotte of Cambridge.

2nd May 2015
18:12 The Duke and Duchess left the hospital with the baby girl, who appeared to be asleep, to wave to the press and well-wishers. The baby was wrapped in a shawl and wearing a bonnet, and Catherine was wearing a yellow shift dress.

17:37 It is likely we will see the princess at around 18:30. 

17:35 Official statement from Kensington Palace:

Her Royal Highness The Duchess of Cambridge will be leaving St. Mary’s Hospital, Paddington this evening.
The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge and their daughter will travel home to Kensington Palace.
Prince George has now returned to Kensington Palace.
Their Royal Highnesses would like to thank all staff at the hospital for the care and treatment they have all received. They would also like to thank everyone for their warm wishes.

17:34 It is confirmed we will see the baby girl today.

16:13 Prince William has returned to the hospital with Prince George, and has entered the hospital.

16:09 Prince William has just left the Lindo Wing to drive himself to Kensington Palace, saying 'we're very, very happy' and adding, 'I'm just going to pick up George'.

13:26 Kate's hairdresser has been seen entering the hospital, sparking speculation that The Duke and Duchess will be leaving the hospital today.

Recommended viewing: 'Inside The Commons', BBC2

The concept of a BBC film crew being given unprecedented access to film in the House of Commons for a year is a concerning one: for the first time, the public gets to see what MPs are really like (to an extent). On the one hand, this could be very positive: we see that MPs are human, and just like us. On the other hand, it exposes suspicions about absurd traditions and a lack of true representative democracy. It's ultimately up to you as to whether you see this programme as encouraging or not, but it is doubtlessly fascinating.

Clerk of the Commons Sir Robert Rogers
telegraph.co.uk

Personally, I found Inside The Commons one of the most interesting, funniest and most entertaining programmes I've seen so far this year. Narrated by Michael Cockerell, Inside The Commons gives us the reality of the House of Commons, without hiding its flaws - and there are certainly plenty of flaws.

itv.com
Charlotte Leslie MP is a member of the Commons focused on
by the programme

The first person from an ethnic minority we see is Gladys, the lady in charge of the Tea Room - only 4% of MPs are from an ethnic minority. The Tea Room itself is laughably traditional, maintaining the feel of an exclusive gentlemen's club. There is an unspoken etiquette here, where certain members of certain parties sit in certain places and it is a faux pas to make a mistake with this.

dailymail.co.uk
Interior of The Tea Room at the House of Commons, albeit
set up for a formal function.

The process of Prime Minister's Questions is a depressingly staged one, not that this was really a huge secret. The Prime Minister's PPS sends an email to all Conservative MPs with a set of 'suggested' topics: effectively, giving them a question to ask along the lines of 'Does the Prime Minister think we're doing a great job?', to which he will of course reply in the affirmative. The system of asking questions at PMQs is also a stiff one - those MPs lucky enough to be selected via a computerised ballot can ask a prepared question, while the others must 'bob', in the vain hope of catching the Speaker's eye.

guardian.co.uk
Sarah Champion MP is another of the relatively young MPs
the programme focuses on

I'm afraid that some of the footage of John Bercow as the Speaker of the House of Commons cemented my feelings of disdain towards him: I find him patronising and irritating. The procession for the Speaker is incredibly antequated: a man calls 'Spea-ker!' in a sing-song voice, while a procession glinting with gold comes down to the House. As they pass, the command 'hats off, strangers!' is called: we see a group of schoolchildren dutifully remove their caps as Bercow comes striding along, waving and nodding condescendingly. Clearly, Bercow has no real control over the nature of the procession, but I found his manner somewhat abrasive.

bbc.co.uk
John Bercow MP as the Speaker of the Commons

Personally, I found Inside The Commons one of the funniest programmes I've seen so far this year. Besides the fact I find it difficult not to laugh as soon as Ed Miliband opens his mouth, there really were some gems. David Cameron remarked that the Palace of Westminster looks a bit like a school; George Osborne looked mechanical and shifty as ever; Jacob Rees-Mogg felt applause was 'unparliamentary'; Sir Robert Rogers snorted snuff and remarked that it is 'quite invigorating'.

But I also found it depressing to a degree - it reminded me why people dislike politicians. The braying, baying and 'whay'-ing of the Commons makes me groan inwardly - it's obnoxious and rude. I'm all for passion in politics but when whoever is speaking cannot be heard, there's clearly something wrong. The traditions make the whole system feel out of touch and distant - the exact opposite of what a representative body should be. 

youtube.com
Backbench MPs are as rowdy as ever 

I'm desperately hoping that the next three episodes of Inside The Commons will be equally as engaging and insightful, but will hopefully enthuse people about politics, rather than confirm their concerns.

Whether you're looking for entertainment, humour or food for thought, Inside The Commons is certainly worth a watch.

Episode One of 'Inside The Commons' is available on BBC iPlayer now.
Episode Two 'Inside The Commons' will be broadcast on BBC Two on Tuesday 10th February at 21:00.

Russell Brand: what exactly is his 'revolution'?

It's been difficult not to notice a certain individual who's been dividing opinion, recently; he's been likened to Communist revolutionary Che Guevara, called a 'prancing perm on a stick', 'the leader of the revolution', and even compared to Jesus Christ. This particular individual is comedian-turned-activist Russell Brand. 

telegraph.co.uk
Political activist Russell Brand

It's easy to get swept along with the whirlwind of opposing opinions surrounding Russell Brand without really understanding what he's about. So, I'd like to offer a little summary of Mr. Brand's protests, his ideas and some opinions on him.

Who is Russell Brand?

esquire.com

Born in Essex, Russell Brand became notorious as the host of a spin-off of British reality show Big Brother. He has had various film roles in movies such as St. Trinian's, Get Him To The Greek, Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Despicable Me. He published his autobiography My Booky Wook in 2007 and married singer Katy Perry in 2010 - they divorced two years later. Brand's comedic material has been based around promiscuity, alcoholism and substance abuse. He is known for his 'Bohemian' lifestyle, from his 'weavy' hair to his love of yoga and Buddhist beliefs.

Brand was interviewed by Jeremy Paxman for Newsnight, where he was challenged about his editing of The New Statesman, and then interviewed again by Evan Davies for the same programme in 2014. In his second interview for Newsnight, he was asked about his 'revolution' and explained that we should remain 'open-minded' to the possibility of the US government instigating the 9/11 attacks.

digitalspy.co.uk
Brand was interviewed by no-nonsense Newsnight
host Jeremy Paxman in 2013

He launched the YouTube channel Trews (True News) in early 2014 in which Brand 'analyses the news truthfully, spontaneously and with great risk to to his personal freedom'. 

youtube.com
Russell Brand offers his analysis and opinions
on new stories via his YouTube channel, 'The Trews'

What are his issues?

One of the comments Russell Brand is most commonly challenged about is his endorsement of not voting, after having said 'I've never voted, I never will', because he feels that the UK's political system has created a 'disenfranchised, disillusioned underclass' which it has failed to serve and that 'there is nothing worth voting for'. He has said, however, that if people feel there is a party representing their views, they should 'by all means vote for them'. 

thesun.co.uk
Brand has been likened to Communist
revolutionary Ernesto 'Che' Guevara

Brand has also called for a new system based on the 'massive redistribution of wealth', holding the belief that politicians being only interested in 'serving the needs of the corporations'. 

He has said that through is rise to fame and subsequent acquisition of wealth, Russell Brand has seen that 'capitalism is not the answer'. Because of this, Brand has been categorised as socialist. 

johnteehan.com
Poster from Russell Brand's tour

What form have his protests taken?

Russell Brand's YouTube channel (Trews) to 'analyse and dismantle media' and his website are the main platforms for his views.

He has also joined various protests, such as the Occupy Wall Street protests in New York. Perhaps his flagship protest in this the New Era estate protest: Brand joined residents' protests against eviction from a Hackney housing estate by a US investment company wishing to develop the estate.

Alongside Jolyon Rubenstein, Oona Chaplin, Heydon Prowse, Professor Green, Miquita Oliver, Jack Whitehall and Rick Edwards he has appeared in a video for Don't Panic London entitled 'Make Lying in Parliament History', which has racked up around 15,000 views so far, with an e-petition available to sign attached to it. 

change.orgOona Chaplin, Jolyon Rubenstein and Russell Brand
are amongst various celebrities initiating a campaign
to 'make lying in Parliament history'

Has he had any victories?

The residents of the New Era estate and Russell Brand have claimed a recent victory, as Westbrook Partners apparently submitted to public protest and sold the estate to affordable housing group the Dolphin Square Foundation.

Through publication of his book Revolution and high-profile protests, Brand could claim to have had a victory in that his issues have been pushed further up the public agenda.

hackneycitizien.co.uk
Residents of the New Era estate claim victory with
Russell Brand's helped, as their eviction notices are
overturned

What do his supporters think?

Many people like the idea of a socialist revolution, redistribution of wealth and a society which works for the majority, rather than an elite few. His supporters often feel that Brand provides a high-profile voice for their feelings of disillusionment with the current system.

What do his opponents think?

Equally, there are those who think that as Brand doesn't vote, he has no right to criticise the system if he doesn't engage with it in this way. The view is also held that his utopian ideal is just that - utopian, and unachievable.

What is his appeal?

On a superficial level, the way he speaks sometimes appeals - he calls almost everyone 'mate', and tends to use plain English (mostly). He seems relatable, and almost like a normal bloke.

People often find him appealing because of his awareness of his privilege. Unlike many who are wealthy, he appreciates that not everyone has been as fortunate as he has, and has seen how money is not always a force for good. He uses his status and influence 'as a force for good', giving a voice to those who may otherwise have struggled to be heard.

hackneygazette.co.uk
Brand marches with New Era estate supporters

Has he had a positive effect on British politics?

This will very much come down to your personal opinion.

In a November 2014 YouGov poll involving a range of celebrities, Russell Brand was selected as the one with the most negative influence on political debate (46%). This poll also found that 60% disliked him, and 28% liked him.

howmuchmoneytheymake.com

In my opinion, Brand has highlighted some of the issues with the current system in politics, and may well have shed some light onto the reasons behind rising political apathy, especially amongst young people. However, I find his manner and personality occasionally abrasive, which means that I struggle to get past. I also struggle to sympathise with his endorsement of not voting - yes, protests and petitions can bring about change, but generally only on particular issues. If you really want to change how our country is run, I feel that you must cast a vote. If Brand really wants to bring about significant change, then he could be best off voting for the Green Party: the Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems and UKIP all sit on the right-authoritarian section of the political compass, whereas the Greens are in the left-libertarian section. 

Regardless of your opinions of Russell Brand, we must all agree that his actions have certainly got people's attention - if that is at least part of his goal, then Mr. Brand should congratulate himself.

theguardian.com

You can visit Russell Brand's website here, or follow him on Twitter as @rustyrockets.

Ched Evans: should a convicted rapist be allowed to return to professional football?

Case summary

In 2012, Wales and Sheffield United striker Chedwyn Evans was jailed for raping a 19 year-old woman. He admits to having sex with this woman, but continues to deny that he committed rape. 

thenews-hub.com
Convicted rapist Ched Evans

Evans was convicted at Caernarfon Crown Court in April 2012. He denied rape at a Premier Inn in North Wales along with Port Vale defender Clayton McDonald. Both men admitted having sex with the woman on 30th May 2011, but insisted that it was consenual. Mr McDonald was acquitted, triggering a brief adjournment. The judge commented:

"The complainant was 19 years of age and was extremely intoxicated. CCTV footage shows, in my view, the extent of her intoxication when she stumbled into your friend. As the jury have found, she was in no condition to have sexual intercourse. When you arrived at the hotel, you must have realised that."

Judge Merfyn Hughes QC said that the sentence took into account the fact that there had been no force involved and the victim received no injuries. 

bbc.co.uk
Clayton McDonald

The jury saw videos in which the woman said she could not remember what had happened that night, and feared her drinks had been spiked. She woke up in a double bed in the hotel with no recollection of how she got there, saying she was 'confused and dazed'. The court heard during Evans' evidence that he had gone to the hotel, let himself into the hotel and watched his friend McDonald and the woman having sex. It was claimed that Mr McDonald asked if Evans could 'get involved', to which the woman said yes. The prosecution claimed that while the attack happened, Ryan Roberts (Evans' brother) and Jack Higgins (an 'associate' of the footballers) watched and tried to film the events through a window.

However, this is a topic which simply won't go away. There are some who still believe that Evans was wrongly convicted. But the question which is still hotly debated is whether Ched Evans should be allowed to return to football.

Evans' video statement

In October 2014, Evans released a video statement via his website. Ched Evans appears in the video, speaking monotonously and with his girlfriend Natasha Massey hanging off his arm. He appears to be reading the statement from an auto-cue, and delivers it without any real feeling. Evans maintains his innocence throughout. Personally, it strikes me as unlikely that he wrote this statement himself - I found his completely ineffectual and unfeeling delivery rather abrasive. The original video can be seen here, but the transcript is as follows:

“In May 2011, in a hotel in North Wales, I cheated on my partner, Natasha, and hurt the woman I love with all my heart. Since that night, I’ve constantly regretted that act of infidelity and damage that has been done on so many fronts because of it. The support that has been shown by Natasha, our friends and family during the trial and the time spent in prison has kept me strong. It can’t have been an easy thing to have stood by someone found guilty of such a destructive act, and I will be forever grateful. Even though I have been released from prison, I am determined to continue fighting to clear my name and it is public knowledge [that] an application to refer my case back to the court of appeal has recently been submitted to the Criminal Case Review Commission by my lawyers. The application seeks to demonstrate that the act that I engaged in on that night were consensual in nature and not rape. I made an incredibly foolish decision and failed those who trusted and believe in me, most of all Tasha and our families. It is a rare and extraordinary privilege to be permitted to play professional football. Now that I have served the custodial part of my sentence of two and a half years, it is my hope that I will be able to return to football. If that is possible, then I would do so with humility and learned a very painful lesson. I would like a second chance but I know not everyone would agree. I don’t believe I have a given right to play again, but for any club to take me on, I have learned a valuable lesson and know that over time, I can prove myself to be a positive influence, not just on the pitch but also in the community. Thank you for listening to me.”

dailymail.co.uk
Ched Evans and his fiancé Natasha Massey during
his video statement

Why support Ched Evans' return to football?

Sheffield United announced that they granted Evans the chance to train with the side after a request from the Professional Footballers' Association. 

The main argument behind allowing Evans to return to football is the idea that he has served his sentence. Mr Evans was sentenced to 5 years, but as with most convicted rapists, he only served half of that in prison. Ched Evans seems to have found the entire process a strain, and does seem to show a certain degree of remorse (but only for infidelity; he still denies rape).

theminimart.com
Charlie Webster stepped down as patron
of Sheffield United following the club's decision to
allow Evans to train alongside them

Let us for a moment imagine that Evans had committed the exact same acts, but was an 'ordinary' man - a plumber, perhaps. Firstly, the case would probably never have been so high profile. Secondly (and perhaps crucially to this side of the argument), Evans would be allowed to return to work. He has served his time, complied with the legal system and should now be allowed to return to his normal life.

But this issue is not so clear cut, and has been incredibly divisive. Sheffield United patron Charlie Webster resigned after the club's decision to allow Evans to return; she told BBC's Newsnight that the club had 'at no point' acknowledged 'the extremity of his crime.'

Why oppose Ched Evans' return to football?

bbc.co.uk
Following her opposition to Evans' return
to Sheffield United, Jessica Ennis-Hill
received rape threats from Twitter trolls

Recently, Olympic athlete Jessica Ennis-Hill requested that her name be removed from one of the stands if Sheffield United allowed Evans to return to the club. There have been petitions and campaigns against Evans' return to professional football.

One of the motivations behind these has been his apparent lack of remorse for his actions of rape - the trouble with this is that it once again comes down to whether Ched Evans was correctly convicted in the first place. However, I think we should be able to hold enough faith in our justice system to believe in the correct verdict being passed: the woman was clearly extremely intoxicated, and in no real fit state to consent to much. The predatory nature of Evans' behaviour is concerning and disturbing. But for a man protesting his innocence, it would be unusual for him to suddenly turn round and apologise to his victim if he insists on never doing anything wrong (apart from infidelity to his partner).

Another problem is his profile. Ched Evans is well-known, and a role model to many, especially men and boys. What sort of a message does that send out to his fans? That it's acceptable to take advantage of people when they are vulnerable, because you can continue with your daily life afterwards? His victim can never return to normality - she has reportedly been forced to leave her hometown and change her name following abuse and threats.

This is always going to be a divisive topic - whatever decision is made by Sheffield United, it will never satisfy everyone. Ched Evans' billionaire future father-in-law has apparently offered him a day-job should his return to football be refused. This seems to be another case of the trials and tribulations of fame. What is certain, however, is that Evans will always carry the stigma of being a convicted rapist along with him, just as the woman he had sex with in a hotel in North Wales can never truly recover from her ordeal.

guardian.co.uk

The growing 'people's army': should the Conservatives be concerned by UKIP?

It's odd to think that at the general election in 2005, UKIP were often held in the same regard as the BNP (British National Party), the SDP (Social Democratic Party), or maybe even the Monster Raving Loonies: they were not really to be taken seriously, and had little to no prospects of coming to power.

Nine years on, however, and the United Kingdom Independence Party under Nigel Farage has become a political force to be reckoned with. They recently gained their first elected MP for the constituency of Clacton with Douglas Carswell - the original Tory MP for the area. For the upcoming by-election in Rochester and Strood, UKIP candidate Mark Reckless (another Conservative defection to UKIP) is set to win, and gain UKIP another MP.

It has been said that Farage's then-deputy, David Campbell Bannerman was to blame for UKIP's lack of performance in the 2010 general election. His manifesto was received poorly - Farage referred to it as 'drivel', and called its author an 'idiot'.

huffingtonpost.co.uk
Farage enjoys a pint in a central London pub,
May 2013

Pint-drinking, tweed-wearing, straight-talking Farage seems to appeal to voters - although public school educated, he did not go to university. Born near Sevenoaks, Kent, he hails from the UKIP stronghold area of the South East. 

So how have UKIP gained such rapid and significant support? Where is it coming from? Perhaps most interestingly, should the Conservatives feel threatened by them?

How have UKIP gained their support?

bbc.co.uk
Farage was a founding member of UKIP in 1993

One of the main components of UKIP's success has been that they are in the right place at the right time. UKIP was founded in 1993, and so tapped into a time when there was growing discontent with traditional 'three party' politics. If UKIP had been in existence during, say, the 1970s, it is unlikely that they would have seen such success. Although there were various economic crises in the 1970s, I do not think this would have compelled people to want to opt out of Europe.

Part of UKIP's success comes from Nigel Farage himself - he seems to offer voters the option of voting for a 'real person', who understands what the average voter wants. Farage did not go to university, and although public school educated, he is not an Etonian (like many male Tory MPs). He has cultivated the image of being your friendly local Eurosceptic - sitting at the bar in tweed, enjoying the occasional trip outside for a smoke. 'Nige' seems average, affable and approachable. Supporters say they like that he is fairly direct and likes to tell it like it is.

Growing disillusionment with the Conservatives has also contributed to UKIP's popularity, as many of the UKIP voters used to vote Conservative. When Cameron became Leader of the Conservatives in 2005, he described himself as a 'compassionate Conservative', endorsing the idea of One Nationism. But since then, many Conservative policies (especially economic ones) have been Thatcherite (or neoliberalist with regard to the economy). One of the main issues with the Tory party is how divided the members are within the party: some are very anti-Europe, others endorse it fully. Some are modernist in their attitudes towards ethnic minorities and sexuality, others are more right-wing and less tolerant. At least with UKIP, voters tend to know where they stand more.

Where is UKIP support coming from?

Earlier this year, YouGov conducted some surveys on this idea - the results are very interesting. 

telegraph.co.uk
UKIP tend to divide opinion

As we can see, somewhat unsurprisingly, almost half of UKIP supporters voted Conservative in 2010 - a large lump of support comes from those already supporting of right of centre ideas; almost a quarter of UKIP supporters described themselves as 'fairly' or 'very' right-wing. Another unsurprising statistic is that a fair bit of UKIP's support comes from those over 50 - it's often the older generations who are more suspicious of and less tolerant of immigrants and ethnic minorities, just because of different attitudes from their youth to today.

There are also some interesting differences and slight surprises - for example, 17% of Telegraph readers support UKIP, but only 6% of Times readers support UKIP.

How UKIP supporters voted in 2010

• Conservative - 45%
• Liberal Democrats - 15%
• UKIP - 12%
• Labour - 11%
• BNP - 3%
• Other party - 1%
• Did not vote - 11%
• Don't know - 1%

UKIP support

Those most likely to vote UKIP:

• Those who say they are 'fairly' or 'very' right wing - 24%
• Working class Conservatives in 2010 - 22%
• Men over 60 - 21%
• Daily Express readers - 21%
• Daily Mail readers - 20%
• Highest educational level GCSE/GCE or lower - 18%
• Semi-/unskilled men (DE social class) - 18%
• Sun readers - 17%
• Daily Telegraph readers - 17%
• Skilled manual man (C2 social class) - 16%
• Women over 60 - 16%
• Men aged 50-59 - 16%
• Household income less than £20,000 per year - 16%

Those least likely to vote UKIP:

• Household income more than £30,000 per year - 7%
• University graduates - 7%
• Daily Mirror readers - 7%
• Voters under 40 - 7%
• Those who say they are 'slightly left of centre' - 6%
• The Times readers - 6%
• Voters who voted Labour in 2010 - 5%
• Those who say they are 'fairly' or 'very' left-wing - 5%
• The Independent readers - 4%
• Black and Asian voters - 2%
• The Guardian readers - 1%

Should the Conservatives feel threatened by UKIP?

At the opening of the UKIP conference last month, Nigel Farage said that he was 'parking UKIP's tanks on Labour's lawn'. However, UKIP and the Conservatives will always have a natural rivalry: as the two main parties towards the right wing of the political spectrum, and with many of their voters coming from the same pool of natural supporters.

thenewstoday.com
Douglas Carswell won the seat of Clacton for UKIP

There have already been concrete examples of UKIP gaining political ground. Douglas Carswell became UKIP's first elected MP: Carswell won the Clacton by-election with 59.75% of the vote, pushing the Tory candidate into second, with only 24.64% of the vote.

In the Heywood and Middleton by-election, UKIP lost out to Labour, but closed the gap significantly. Labour won 40.86% of votes (with a change of +1%), but UKIP gained 38.69% (with a change of +36%). The Conservatives had 12.28% of votes, with a loss of 15% of the vote for Heywood and Middleton.

Recently, Nigel Farage was invited to join the leaders of the Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties for live TV debates ahead of the general election. This shows that UKIP are real contenders for the general election, with polls suggesting that UKIP will win around 25% of seats next May.

The upcoming Rochester and Strood by-election will provide interesting and important results - former Conservative MP for the constituency Mark Reckless defected to UKIP, triggering the by-election. If UKIP win this seat, it will show how UKIP are a direct threat to the Conservatives, and the dissatisfaction of the people with the Tories currently.

bbc.co.uk
Mark Reckless was the second MP to defect
to UKIP last month

The fact that Carswell and Reckless defected in the first place should provide Mr. Cameron with at least a small sense of concern. Carswell has already proved himself to be a successful MP, given that he can get elected when standing for two different parties. I think the fundamental issue with the Tories is how divided they are within the party - it is incredibly difficult to please everyone within the party, and strong characters will make a song and dance about it. Defections simply look bad: they make it seem that the party's leadership aren't dedicated enough to its members or their needs. The reality, though, is that in the grand scheme of things, two defections is an incredibly small minority of the party in support of UKIP.

It seems that the Conservatives should, overall, be concerned by UKIP, if not for any other reason than simple statistics. Clacton and Heywood and Middleton have shown the growing public support for UKIP; in Rochester and Strood, recent polls suggest that UKIP will win another seat, with Reckless gaining a 13 point lead on the Conservative candidate. It is unlikely that Nigel Farage will be moving in to Number 10 any time soon - I do not think the Conservatives need to fear a UKIP majority. However, it seems highly plausible that UKIP will gain a sufficient share of seats to disallow a Conservative majority, thus handing Labour the win. It could be that UKIP simple push the Tories out, allowing Miliband to saunter into Downing Street and take the majority. So yes, the Conservatives should certainly keep an eye on UKIP. Something will need to change for the Tories if they are to come to power again next year.

express.co.uk

Recommended viewing: 'The Revolution Will Be Televised', BBC3

In case you haven't noticed, there's a revolution going on...and it's being televised. One of BBC Three's best programmes is back for a third series - 'The Revolution Will Be Televised' Series Three is well under way, and this time, it's heading Stateside.

bbc.co.uk
Jolyon Rubinstein (left) and Heydon Prowse (right) are both
University of Sussex graduates.

The programme features Jolyon Rubinstein and Heydon Prowse highlighting flaws in our society by 'fighting back', and generally wreaking havoc; one of the best examples of satirical comedy out there for sure. As the opening of the programme says:

'Our world is full of hypocrisy, corruption and greed. Someone has to fight back. Shame it had to be these two...'

I would, however, argue that it's not a shame at all that it's Prowse and Rubinstein who are taking a stand. Both of them deliver incredibly brave and persuasive performances, managing to get away with some pretty incredible stunts. Lots of the action takes place on the streets of Britain and America, where hidden cameras document the boys presenting an issue to the public in the form of satire.

For example, when discussing the large amount of taxpayer's money spent on police guarding Julian Assange in the Ecuadorian embassy, Heydon Prowse waltzes into the embassy and greets the receptionist. He then goes on to say; 'I've got a room booked for one night. This is my bag. I'll have a wake up call at 9am and I'll take The Times, and also The Guardian. I've got the promotional code from the B&B website; it's "I'm seeking asylum".' When he begins to get confronted by security, he warns 'You're cruising for a very bad review on TripAdvisor, young man.' The idea here is that the Ecuadorian embassy is like a bed and breakfast, where Assange can stay for £8,000 a night - the cost of his police guard which has come from our taxes.

screenrobot.com
The comics deliver 'bullshit' to Parliament, as they're concerned the MPs
are running out.

comedy.co.uk
Characters include Zam Smith (top left), Dale Maily (top centre),
Conservative MP James Twottington-Burbage (bottom left) and
Liberal Democrat MP Barnaby Plankton (bottom right)

Similarly, Jolyon Rubinstein takes on the role of Zam Smith from BBCOMGWTF (a fictional entertainment and gossip programme) and appears at various star-studded events, the most recent of which is London Fashion Week. He interviews celebrities at London Fashion week such as reality TV stars Millie Mackintosh and Rosie Fortescue and models Abbey Clancy and Rene Borisova. 'Zam Smith' begins with trivialities, such as talking about designers, but then suddenly confronts the celebrities with tough political questions. He asks Mackintosh and Fortescue in a light, bubbly voice 'But seriously, can we justify selling arms to Saudi Arabia?', only to be met by baffled silence. Perhaps the best moment of the entire episode (Episode 3) was when Rubinstein - sorry, Zam Smith - asked Lady Mary Charteris about Boko Haram. The exchange which followed was quite something to behold;

Interviewer: 'But seriously, what should we be doing about Boko Haram?'

Lady Charteris: 'What? Boko Haram?'

Interviewer: 'Yeah, have you seen his collection yet?

Lady Charteris: 'No.'

Interviewer: 'Well, he had his runway show yesterday.'

Lady Charteris: 'Oh, how was it?'

Interviewer: 'It was quite fabulous, but it was quite, mm...niche?'

Some other stand-out features include the honest subtitles put under politicians' speeches, the characters of Tory MP James Twottington-Burbage and Lib Dem MP Barnaby Plankton, Prowse's character of Alternator (a street magician who 'loves magic, but not when it's used for dark arts, like when the Wall Street bankers got greedy and screwed us all in the financial crash in 2008'), Rubinstein's character of Dale Maily (a self-described 'fearless hetero journalist who's not afraid to be unafraid' who delivers 'fair, impartial news, as it happens, wherever it happens, telling you the right way to think.').

huffingtonpost.co.uk
Last series saw James and Barnaby on escapades such as
presenting George Osborne with a GCSE Maths textbook,
asking David Cameron to sign a Bullingdon Club album,
and trying to persuade Alex Salmond to drop the campaign for Scottish independence.

As performers, both Prowse and Rubinstein are very impressive - they hold their nerve, have absolutely no shame and exhibit incredible composure. But what is perhaps more impressive is what they come up with, and how well they tap into the growing feeling of discontent with 'traditional' politics, and the rising disdain and distrust for politicians. The way in which they present their ideas strikes the right balance between slapstick and satirical humour - enough to watch purely for a laugh, but for plenty to think about to actually be taken from the programme. There are also neat summaries of certain stories before some of the sketches; it's the sort of programme which should be required viewing for Government & Politics A Level students.

digitalspy.co.uk
'TRWBT' won a BAFTA for 'Comedy Programme' last year

This programme is in similar company to 'Bad Education' and 'Some Girls', in that it shows just what a shame it will be when BBC Three ceases to be a main televisual channel and goes online. Until then, 'The Revolution Will Be Televised' is an extremely well engineered, cleverly constructed, outrageously funny programme: well worth watching.

tvwise.co.uk

Series Three of 'The Revolution Will Be Televised' is available to watch on BBC iPlayer now.
You can follow Jolyon Rubinstein on Twitter as @jolyonrubs.
You can follow Heydon Prowse on Twitter as @heydonprowse.

Submarine sighting in Swedish waters: the hunt is on

What's going on?

There have been several reported sightings of a mysterious vessel off the Swedish coast. It seems likely that this vessel is a submarine, and there has been heavy speculation that it is Russian. Sweden's search for the mystery vessel has no reached its sixth bay and has been focused around Ingaro Bay, off Stockholm.

bbcnews.co.uk
This image of the mystery vessel has been
distributed by the Swedish military; it was originally
taken by a passerby near Stockholm.

Sweden has made no accusations as to the ownership of the vessel, but have threatened to use force in the ongoing investigation by intelligence services. Rear Admiral Anders Grenstad said he had 'no clue' which country owned the submarine; on the possibility of the use of force in the submarine search, he said:

'This is what you get, when you're hunting submarines.'

Local media claimed that Sweden had intercepted a distress signal in Russian; however, Russia has denied suggestions that one of its submarines got into difficulties near Stockholm last week after these alleged interceptions. Moreover, Russia has several submarines based in Kalinigrad (a Russian enclave bordered by Lithuania and Poland, facing out to Sweden) as well as a significantly bigger force on the Kola Peninsula near Murmansk.

Rear Admiral Grenstad said that the Swedish are trying to establish whether the mystery vessel is indeed a submarine. The Swedish navy has been searching for the mystery vessel since last week. This mobilisation of naval forces has been Sweden's biggest since the Cold War.

The Rear Admiral also said that the Swedes have 'the possibility to use weapons to get [the captain of the ship] to stop whatever it is doing.' He also appealed to the public and their help in identifying the vessel by keeping camera phones close to hand when around the islands near Stockholm. Swedish Prime Minister Steven Lofven announced that his government will increase its defence spending on Thursday.

bbcnews.co.uk

What's the most likely scenario?

newsweek.com
Russian President Vladimir Putin

Moscow has taken its usual tactic of 'denying all knowledge' - in the same way they 'denied all knowledge' of troops in Ukraine. Putin's speech directly after the MH17 plane crash never denied Russian involvement, only expressed sadness and regret. Slippery and difficult to pin down, Putin's actions and words over the next few weeks are to be observed even more closely.

It's very difficult to say who the submarine belongs to. However, it seems fair to consider the possibility of the vessel being a Russian submarine: Russian military intervention in the Ukraine this year has given rise to speculation and suspicion about its intentions towards other neighbouring states, notably in the Baltic. In light of Russia's recent military action and the mystery surround the MH17 crash, it's hard not to be at least a little suspicious of Russia's military at the moment.

Some critics have suggested that the vessel is a Russian submarine, and that the Kremlin is testing the reactions of NATO members. 

Other people believe that this sighting is designed to be a diversion to distract attention from something else going on - exactly what this 'something else' could be is difficult to ascertain. Perhaps this could be other covert military operations towards Sweden or other nations in the Baltic.

Alternatively, it has been suggested that the Russians are testing how close their submarines can get into territorial waters. 

So much suspicion, mystery and speculation surrounds this story - I will continue to update as more information becomes available.

wjla.com
This is Sweden's largest mobilisation since the Cold War.