The growing 'people's army': should the Conservatives be concerned by UKIP?

It's odd to think that at the general election in 2005, UKIP were often held in the same regard as the BNP (British National Party), the SDP (Social Democratic Party), or maybe even the Monster Raving Loonies: they were not really to be taken seriously, and had little to no prospects of coming to power.

Nine years on, however, and the United Kingdom Independence Party under Nigel Farage has become a political force to be reckoned with. They recently gained their first elected MP for the constituency of Clacton with Douglas Carswell - the original Tory MP for the area. For the upcoming by-election in Rochester and Strood, UKIP candidate Mark Reckless (another Conservative defection to UKIP) is set to win, and gain UKIP another MP.

It has been said that Farage's then-deputy, David Campbell Bannerman was to blame for UKIP's lack of performance in the 2010 general election. His manifesto was received poorly - Farage referred to it as 'drivel', and called its author an 'idiot'.

huffingtonpost.co.uk
Farage enjoys a pint in a central London pub,
May 2013

Pint-drinking, tweed-wearing, straight-talking Farage seems to appeal to voters - although public school educated, he did not go to university. Born near Sevenoaks, Kent, he hails from the UKIP stronghold area of the South East. 

So how have UKIP gained such rapid and significant support? Where is it coming from? Perhaps most interestingly, should the Conservatives feel threatened by them?

How have UKIP gained their support?

bbc.co.uk
Farage was a founding member of UKIP in 1993

One of the main components of UKIP's success has been that they are in the right place at the right time. UKIP was founded in 1993, and so tapped into a time when there was growing discontent with traditional 'three party' politics. If UKIP had been in existence during, say, the 1970s, it is unlikely that they would have seen such success. Although there were various economic crises in the 1970s, I do not think this would have compelled people to want to opt out of Europe.

Part of UKIP's success comes from Nigel Farage himself - he seems to offer voters the option of voting for a 'real person', who understands what the average voter wants. Farage did not go to university, and although public school educated, he is not an Etonian (like many male Tory MPs). He has cultivated the image of being your friendly local Eurosceptic - sitting at the bar in tweed, enjoying the occasional trip outside for a smoke. 'Nige' seems average, affable and approachable. Supporters say they like that he is fairly direct and likes to tell it like it is.

Growing disillusionment with the Conservatives has also contributed to UKIP's popularity, as many of the UKIP voters used to vote Conservative. When Cameron became Leader of the Conservatives in 2005, he described himself as a 'compassionate Conservative', endorsing the idea of One Nationism. But since then, many Conservative policies (especially economic ones) have been Thatcherite (or neoliberalist with regard to the economy). One of the main issues with the Tory party is how divided the members are within the party: some are very anti-Europe, others endorse it fully. Some are modernist in their attitudes towards ethnic minorities and sexuality, others are more right-wing and less tolerant. At least with UKIP, voters tend to know where they stand more.

Where is UKIP support coming from?

Earlier this year, YouGov conducted some surveys on this idea - the results are very interesting. 

telegraph.co.uk
UKIP tend to divide opinion

As we can see, somewhat unsurprisingly, almost half of UKIP supporters voted Conservative in 2010 - a large lump of support comes from those already supporting of right of centre ideas; almost a quarter of UKIP supporters described themselves as 'fairly' or 'very' right-wing. Another unsurprising statistic is that a fair bit of UKIP's support comes from those over 50 - it's often the older generations who are more suspicious of and less tolerant of immigrants and ethnic minorities, just because of different attitudes from their youth to today.

There are also some interesting differences and slight surprises - for example, 17% of Telegraph readers support UKIP, but only 6% of Times readers support UKIP.

How UKIP supporters voted in 2010

• Conservative - 45%
• Liberal Democrats - 15%
• UKIP - 12%
• Labour - 11%
• BNP - 3%
• Other party - 1%
• Did not vote - 11%
• Don't know - 1%

UKIP support

Those most likely to vote UKIP:

• Those who say they are 'fairly' or 'very' right wing - 24%
• Working class Conservatives in 2010 - 22%
• Men over 60 - 21%
• Daily Express readers - 21%
• Daily Mail readers - 20%
• Highest educational level GCSE/GCE or lower - 18%
• Semi-/unskilled men (DE social class) - 18%
• Sun readers - 17%
• Daily Telegraph readers - 17%
• Skilled manual man (C2 social class) - 16%
• Women over 60 - 16%
• Men aged 50-59 - 16%
• Household income less than £20,000 per year - 16%

Those least likely to vote UKIP:

• Household income more than £30,000 per year - 7%
• University graduates - 7%
• Daily Mirror readers - 7%
• Voters under 40 - 7%
• Those who say they are 'slightly left of centre' - 6%
• The Times readers - 6%
• Voters who voted Labour in 2010 - 5%
• Those who say they are 'fairly' or 'very' left-wing - 5%
• The Independent readers - 4%
• Black and Asian voters - 2%
• The Guardian readers - 1%

Should the Conservatives feel threatened by UKIP?

At the opening of the UKIP conference last month, Nigel Farage said that he was 'parking UKIP's tanks on Labour's lawn'. However, UKIP and the Conservatives will always have a natural rivalry: as the two main parties towards the right wing of the political spectrum, and with many of their voters coming from the same pool of natural supporters.

thenewstoday.com
Douglas Carswell won the seat of Clacton for UKIP

There have already been concrete examples of UKIP gaining political ground. Douglas Carswell became UKIP's first elected MP: Carswell won the Clacton by-election with 59.75% of the vote, pushing the Tory candidate into second, with only 24.64% of the vote.

In the Heywood and Middleton by-election, UKIP lost out to Labour, but closed the gap significantly. Labour won 40.86% of votes (with a change of +1%), but UKIP gained 38.69% (with a change of +36%). The Conservatives had 12.28% of votes, with a loss of 15% of the vote for Heywood and Middleton.

Recently, Nigel Farage was invited to join the leaders of the Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties for live TV debates ahead of the general election. This shows that UKIP are real contenders for the general election, with polls suggesting that UKIP will win around 25% of seats next May.

The upcoming Rochester and Strood by-election will provide interesting and important results - former Conservative MP for the constituency Mark Reckless defected to UKIP, triggering the by-election. If UKIP win this seat, it will show how UKIP are a direct threat to the Conservatives, and the dissatisfaction of the people with the Tories currently.

bbc.co.uk
Mark Reckless was the second MP to defect
to UKIP last month

The fact that Carswell and Reckless defected in the first place should provide Mr. Cameron with at least a small sense of concern. Carswell has already proved himself to be a successful MP, given that he can get elected when standing for two different parties. I think the fundamental issue with the Tories is how divided they are within the party - it is incredibly difficult to please everyone within the party, and strong characters will make a song and dance about it. Defections simply look bad: they make it seem that the party's leadership aren't dedicated enough to its members or their needs. The reality, though, is that in the grand scheme of things, two defections is an incredibly small minority of the party in support of UKIP.

It seems that the Conservatives should, overall, be concerned by UKIP, if not for any other reason than simple statistics. Clacton and Heywood and Middleton have shown the growing public support for UKIP; in Rochester and Strood, recent polls suggest that UKIP will win another seat, with Reckless gaining a 13 point lead on the Conservative candidate. It is unlikely that Nigel Farage will be moving in to Number 10 any time soon - I do not think the Conservatives need to fear a UKIP majority. However, it seems highly plausible that UKIP will gain a sufficient share of seats to disallow a Conservative majority, thus handing Labour the win. It could be that UKIP simple push the Tories out, allowing Miliband to saunter into Downing Street and take the majority. So yes, the Conservatives should certainly keep an eye on UKIP. Something will need to change for the Tories if they are to come to power again next year.

express.co.uk

Recommended viewing: 'The Revolution Will Be Televised', BBC3

In case you haven't noticed, there's a revolution going on...and it's being televised. One of BBC Three's best programmes is back for a third series - 'The Revolution Will Be Televised' Series Three is well under way, and this time, it's heading Stateside.

bbc.co.uk
Jolyon Rubinstein (left) and Heydon Prowse (right) are both
University of Sussex graduates.

The programme features Jolyon Rubinstein and Heydon Prowse highlighting flaws in our society by 'fighting back', and generally wreaking havoc; one of the best examples of satirical comedy out there for sure. As the opening of the programme says:

'Our world is full of hypocrisy, corruption and greed. Someone has to fight back. Shame it had to be these two...'

I would, however, argue that it's not a shame at all that it's Prowse and Rubinstein who are taking a stand. Both of them deliver incredibly brave and persuasive performances, managing to get away with some pretty incredible stunts. Lots of the action takes place on the streets of Britain and America, where hidden cameras document the boys presenting an issue to the public in the form of satire.

For example, when discussing the large amount of taxpayer's money spent on police guarding Julian Assange in the Ecuadorian embassy, Heydon Prowse waltzes into the embassy and greets the receptionist. He then goes on to say; 'I've got a room booked for one night. This is my bag. I'll have a wake up call at 9am and I'll take The Times, and also The Guardian. I've got the promotional code from the B&B website; it's "I'm seeking asylum".' When he begins to get confronted by security, he warns 'You're cruising for a very bad review on TripAdvisor, young man.' The idea here is that the Ecuadorian embassy is like a bed and breakfast, where Assange can stay for £8,000 a night - the cost of his police guard which has come from our taxes.

screenrobot.com
The comics deliver 'bullshit' to Parliament, as they're concerned the MPs
are running out.

comedy.co.uk
Characters include Zam Smith (top left), Dale Maily (top centre),
Conservative MP James Twottington-Burbage (bottom left) and
Liberal Democrat MP Barnaby Plankton (bottom right)

Similarly, Jolyon Rubinstein takes on the role of Zam Smith from BBCOMGWTF (a fictional entertainment and gossip programme) and appears at various star-studded events, the most recent of which is London Fashion Week. He interviews celebrities at London Fashion week such as reality TV stars Millie Mackintosh and Rosie Fortescue and models Abbey Clancy and Rene Borisova. 'Zam Smith' begins with trivialities, such as talking about designers, but then suddenly confronts the celebrities with tough political questions. He asks Mackintosh and Fortescue in a light, bubbly voice 'But seriously, can we justify selling arms to Saudi Arabia?', only to be met by baffled silence. Perhaps the best moment of the entire episode (Episode 3) was when Rubinstein - sorry, Zam Smith - asked Lady Mary Charteris about Boko Haram. The exchange which followed was quite something to behold;

Interviewer: 'But seriously, what should we be doing about Boko Haram?'

Lady Charteris: 'What? Boko Haram?'

Interviewer: 'Yeah, have you seen his collection yet?

Lady Charteris: 'No.'

Interviewer: 'Well, he had his runway show yesterday.'

Lady Charteris: 'Oh, how was it?'

Interviewer: 'It was quite fabulous, but it was quite, mm...niche?'

Some other stand-out features include the honest subtitles put under politicians' speeches, the characters of Tory MP James Twottington-Burbage and Lib Dem MP Barnaby Plankton, Prowse's character of Alternator (a street magician who 'loves magic, but not when it's used for dark arts, like when the Wall Street bankers got greedy and screwed us all in the financial crash in 2008'), Rubinstein's character of Dale Maily (a self-described 'fearless hetero journalist who's not afraid to be unafraid' who delivers 'fair, impartial news, as it happens, wherever it happens, telling you the right way to think.').

huffingtonpost.co.uk
Last series saw James and Barnaby on escapades such as
presenting George Osborne with a GCSE Maths textbook,
asking David Cameron to sign a Bullingdon Club album,
and trying to persuade Alex Salmond to drop the campaign for Scottish independence.

As performers, both Prowse and Rubinstein are very impressive - they hold their nerve, have absolutely no shame and exhibit incredible composure. But what is perhaps more impressive is what they come up with, and how well they tap into the growing feeling of discontent with 'traditional' politics, and the rising disdain and distrust for politicians. The way in which they present their ideas strikes the right balance between slapstick and satirical humour - enough to watch purely for a laugh, but for plenty to think about to actually be taken from the programme. There are also neat summaries of certain stories before some of the sketches; it's the sort of programme which should be required viewing for Government & Politics A Level students.

digitalspy.co.uk
'TRWBT' won a BAFTA for 'Comedy Programme' last year

This programme is in similar company to 'Bad Education' and 'Some Girls', in that it shows just what a shame it will be when BBC Three ceases to be a main televisual channel and goes online. Until then, 'The Revolution Will Be Televised' is an extremely well engineered, cleverly constructed, outrageously funny programme: well worth watching.

tvwise.co.uk

Series Three of 'The Revolution Will Be Televised' is available to watch on BBC iPlayer now.
You can follow Jolyon Rubinstein on Twitter as @jolyonrubs.
You can follow Heydon Prowse on Twitter as @heydonprowse.

Submarine sighting in Swedish waters: the hunt is on

What's going on?

There have been several reported sightings of a mysterious vessel off the Swedish coast. It seems likely that this vessel is a submarine, and there has been heavy speculation that it is Russian. Sweden's search for the mystery vessel has no reached its sixth bay and has been focused around Ingaro Bay, off Stockholm.

bbcnews.co.uk
This image of the mystery vessel has been
distributed by the Swedish military; it was originally
taken by a passerby near Stockholm.

Sweden has made no accusations as to the ownership of the vessel, but have threatened to use force in the ongoing investigation by intelligence services. Rear Admiral Anders Grenstad said he had 'no clue' which country owned the submarine; on the possibility of the use of force in the submarine search, he said:

'This is what you get, when you're hunting submarines.'

Local media claimed that Sweden had intercepted a distress signal in Russian; however, Russia has denied suggestions that one of its submarines got into difficulties near Stockholm last week after these alleged interceptions. Moreover, Russia has several submarines based in Kalinigrad (a Russian enclave bordered by Lithuania and Poland, facing out to Sweden) as well as a significantly bigger force on the Kola Peninsula near Murmansk.

Rear Admiral Grenstad said that the Swedish are trying to establish whether the mystery vessel is indeed a submarine. The Swedish navy has been searching for the mystery vessel since last week. This mobilisation of naval forces has been Sweden's biggest since the Cold War.

The Rear Admiral also said that the Swedes have 'the possibility to use weapons to get [the captain of the ship] to stop whatever it is doing.' He also appealed to the public and their help in identifying the vessel by keeping camera phones close to hand when around the islands near Stockholm. Swedish Prime Minister Steven Lofven announced that his government will increase its defence spending on Thursday.

bbcnews.co.uk

What's the most likely scenario?

newsweek.com
Russian President Vladimir Putin

Moscow has taken its usual tactic of 'denying all knowledge' - in the same way they 'denied all knowledge' of troops in Ukraine. Putin's speech directly after the MH17 plane crash never denied Russian involvement, only expressed sadness and regret. Slippery and difficult to pin down, Putin's actions and words over the next few weeks are to be observed even more closely.

It's very difficult to say who the submarine belongs to. However, it seems fair to consider the possibility of the vessel being a Russian submarine: Russian military intervention in the Ukraine this year has given rise to speculation and suspicion about its intentions towards other neighbouring states, notably in the Baltic. In light of Russia's recent military action and the mystery surround the MH17 crash, it's hard not to be at least a little suspicious of Russia's military at the moment.

Some critics have suggested that the vessel is a Russian submarine, and that the Kremlin is testing the reactions of NATO members. 

Other people believe that this sighting is designed to be a diversion to distract attention from something else going on - exactly what this 'something else' could be is difficult to ascertain. Perhaps this could be other covert military operations towards Sweden or other nations in the Baltic.

Alternatively, it has been suggested that the Russians are testing how close their submarines can get into territorial waters. 

So much suspicion, mystery and speculation surrounds this story - I will continue to update as more information becomes available.

wjla.com
This is Sweden's largest mobilisation since the Cold War.

From broken records to broken dreams: what went wrong for Oscar Pistorius?

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