Submarine sighting in Swedish waters: the hunt is on

What's going on?

There have been several reported sightings of a mysterious vessel off the Swedish coast. It seems likely that this vessel is a submarine, and there has been heavy speculation that it is Russian. Sweden's search for the mystery vessel has no reached its sixth bay and has been focused around Ingaro Bay, off Stockholm.

bbcnews.co.uk
This image of the mystery vessel has been
distributed by the Swedish military; it was originally
taken by a passerby near Stockholm.

Sweden has made no accusations as to the ownership of the vessel, but have threatened to use force in the ongoing investigation by intelligence services. Rear Admiral Anders Grenstad said he had 'no clue' which country owned the submarine; on the possibility of the use of force in the submarine search, he said:

'This is what you get, when you're hunting submarines.'

Local media claimed that Sweden had intercepted a distress signal in Russian; however, Russia has denied suggestions that one of its submarines got into difficulties near Stockholm last week after these alleged interceptions. Moreover, Russia has several submarines based in Kalinigrad (a Russian enclave bordered by Lithuania and Poland, facing out to Sweden) as well as a significantly bigger force on the Kola Peninsula near Murmansk.

Rear Admiral Grenstad said that the Swedish are trying to establish whether the mystery vessel is indeed a submarine. The Swedish navy has been searching for the mystery vessel since last week. This mobilisation of naval forces has been Sweden's biggest since the Cold War.

The Rear Admiral also said that the Swedes have 'the possibility to use weapons to get [the captain of the ship] to stop whatever it is doing.' He also appealed to the public and their help in identifying the vessel by keeping camera phones close to hand when around the islands near Stockholm. Swedish Prime Minister Steven Lofven announced that his government will increase its defence spending on Thursday.

bbcnews.co.uk

What's the most likely scenario?

newsweek.com
Russian President Vladimir Putin

Moscow has taken its usual tactic of 'denying all knowledge' - in the same way they 'denied all knowledge' of troops in Ukraine. Putin's speech directly after the MH17 plane crash never denied Russian involvement, only expressed sadness and regret. Slippery and difficult to pin down, Putin's actions and words over the next few weeks are to be observed even more closely.

It's very difficult to say who the submarine belongs to. However, it seems fair to consider the possibility of the vessel being a Russian submarine: Russian military intervention in the Ukraine this year has given rise to speculation and suspicion about its intentions towards other neighbouring states, notably in the Baltic. In light of Russia's recent military action and the mystery surround the MH17 crash, it's hard not to be at least a little suspicious of Russia's military at the moment.

Some critics have suggested that the vessel is a Russian submarine, and that the Kremlin is testing the reactions of NATO members. 

Other people believe that this sighting is designed to be a diversion to distract attention from something else going on - exactly what this 'something else' could be is difficult to ascertain. Perhaps this could be other covert military operations towards Sweden or other nations in the Baltic.

Alternatively, it has been suggested that the Russians are testing how close their submarines can get into territorial waters. 

So much suspicion, mystery and speculation surrounds this story - I will continue to update as more information becomes available.

wjla.com
This is Sweden's largest mobilisation since the Cold War.